After a take-up decline of -41% in 2020, and despite a low take-up in Q1 2021, a slight recovery has begun on the >5,000 sqm segment. 13 transactions >5,000 sqm were signed in Q1 2021, versus 10 the previous year.

However, average transaction size contracted significantly, which explains the -42% decline in volume of transactions >5,000 sqm.

The small and medium surface area segment performed better: take-up fell by only -19% in the Paris region and -6% in Paris (only -3% in the CBD).

Vacancy rates have increased significantly in one year, but remain balanced in Paris.

Yet there has been little or no impact on rents (excluding La Défense). Rent for new space is actually rising in Paris CBD.

Incentives are currently the main adjustment variable, averaging -23% in the Paris region for surface areas >1,000 sqm.

It is currently difficult to forecast take-up over the course of the coming quarters.

The economic growth outlook for 2021 remains positive (+5%). Yet a sustainable recovery will only be possible if the vaccination programme accelerates and the health crisis finally stabilises.  In this case, it is likely that companies will once again start to take decisions and move beyond the wait and see approach that dominated 2020, given this crisis is not specific to real estate.

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fter a take-up decline of -41% in 2020, and despite a low take-up in Q1 2021, a slight recovery has begun on the >5,000 sqm segment.

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Key figures April 2021

Take-up in Île-de-France region per quarter ​

Source: MBE Conseil according to Immostat

Take-up in Île-de-France region per quarter  ​

  • Q1 2021 take-up fell by -36% compared with the 10-year average, and by -30% compared with Q1 2020.
     
  • This decline must be considered in context: Q1 2020 figures were significantly impacted by TOTAL's 126,000 sqm mega deal in LINK in La Défense. Without this transaction, the decline would only represent -4%.

Take-up in Île-de-France region by size

Source: MBE Conseil according to Immostat

Take-up in Île-de-France region by size

  • The small and medium surface area segment suffered a less significant decrease than in previous quarters of -19%. Nevertheless, this decline has affected the 1,000-5,000 sqm segment (-25%) more than the <1,000 sqm segment (-15%).
     
  • The number of transactions >5,000 sqm increased compared with Q1 2020: 13 transactions were finalised, versus 10 the previous year.
     
  • However, transaction volume fell by -42%, given most transactions were for the 5,000-10,000 sqm segment (11 of 13 transactions). Only one transaction for more than 20,000 sqm was signed. 

Take-up in Île-de-France region by geographic area

Source: MBE Conseil according to Immostat

Take-up in Île-de-France region by geographic area

  • The situation varies by sector: occupiers favour Paris and the Western CBD. The decline in take-up was limited to -21% in Paris, primarily due to the scarcity of major transactions (-64%), whereas demand for small and medium surface areas fell by only -6% (only -3% in the CBD).
     
  • 24% of overall demand was concentrated in the Western CBD, despite La Défense's poor performance with only one major transaction recorded.
     
  • However, there were significant declines in the North, East and South districts, as well as the Péri Défense.

Vacancy rate in Île-de-France

Source: MBE Conseil according to Immostat

Vacancy rate in Île-de-France

  • Vacancy rates have increased significantly in one year: +2.1 points in Paris, +1.5 point in the Greater Paris Region, and +1.2 point in the suburbs, even if this increase proved more moderate at the end of 2020 and Q1 2021.
     
  • Paris remains balanced: only Paris North East and the 14th and 15th districts have vacancy rates above 5.
     
  • The Western CBD is generally oversupplied, with a high vacancy rate of 11.3% in La Défense.
     
  • The Greater Paris region is balanced, but only just.

Evolution of average weighted rental values for new buildings

Source: MBE Conseil according to Immostat

Evolution of average weighted rental values for new buildings

  • As of Q1 2021, rent for new buildings continued to rise in the Paris CBD and exceeded the €800/sqm threshold, with a top rent of €930/sqm. The average value nevertheless applies only to a limited number of transactions.
     
  • In the Western CBD, rents remain stable. There are, however, significant variations, for example between the top rent in Neuilly which exceeds €600, and the rent adjustments underway in La Défense.
     
  • The rent increase recorded in suburban areas is predominantly due to the rent for EVIDENCE in Saint-Ouen.

Major transactions for more than 5,000 sqm completed in Q1 2021 :

Significant transactions for spaces - April 2021
TENANT/PURCHASERSPACE (sq. m)ADDRESSLOCATIONCONDITION
DASSAULT SYSTEMS / DASSAULT DATA SERVICES28 000 Campus DassaultVELIZYNEW
CGI France11 500Carré MicheletLA DEFENSENEW
ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES9 500M CampusMEUDONSECOND HAND
VALLOUREC5 140M CampusMEUDONSECOND HAND
CHANEL8 964M CampusNEUILLY SUR SEINENEW
MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC EUROPE BV8 150OnlineRUEIL MALMAISONNEW
ORANO - CEREORANO - CERE7 190Futura 2SAINT QUENTIN EN YVELINESSECOND HAND
BPE - BANQUE PRIVEE EUROPEENNE6 841La Poste du LouvrePARIS 01NEW
VOODOO5 832La Poste du LouvrePARIS 01NEW
SNCF FRET6 690Evidence 1SAINT OUENNEW
SMILE5 645Key ViewASNIERESSECOND HAND
ENERGIES France5 465Le CleverGENNEVILLIERSSECOND HAND
BPI - BANQUE PUBLIQUE D'INVESTISSEMENT5 400MoveFONTENAY SOUS BOISNEW
Source: MBE Conseil

Major transactions for more than 5,000 sqm completed in Q1 2021 :